An unusually potent (for the time of year) North Atlantic frontal system impacted British Isles and Ireland this morning and afternoon (local time) with intense winds and locally heavy rainfall. Ireland and Scotland were particularly hard hit with gusts to 80-90 mph (isolated gusts to 100 mph) during the morning and early afternoon hours Thursday.
The BBC reported that the highest wind gust ever recorded in the month of June in Northern Ireland occurred this morning; a hurricane-force wind gust of 74 mph at Orlock Head. Edinburgh, Scotland reported a gusts near 60 mph, as did Leeming Royal Air Force Base in northern England. Great Dun Fell, a 2,782 ft mountain in northern England reported a gust at its peak of 95 mph. With trees fully bloomed with leaves in mid-June (especially thanks to the recent very abnormally warm weather in Britain), large trees act as sails to the wind and are more easily toppled, posing life-threatening hazards from falling trees or branches onto roads. And this was much the case today with trees falling in the strong winds and heavy rain spreading over the north.
— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) June 14, 2018
The Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Bud has, as expected, continued its rapid weakening is now a dying tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It has lost much of its deep convection, but still has a prominent circulation with gusty winds and locally heavy rain bands with scattered thunderstorms.
Bud is expected to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas late tonight as a very minimal tropical storm or depression (likely 35-40 mph winds) as it continues to track of waters with little heat to support heavy thunderstorm activity. It will then move over the southern Peninsula and into the Gulf of California for mainland Northwest Mexico Friday as a weakening depression.
As the systems enters the Gulf, its moisture, plus additional low-level moisture will rapidly surge northward from the Gulf, leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms in parts of Arizona, New Mexico and farther northward. Flash flooding is possible from these storms.
I would also mention, given the very dry soils and very dry air ahead of the system, more isolated storms may produce intense downbursts of cooler strong winds which may induce dust storms, so be mindful of this if they develop.
I will also give special mention to the surge of tropical moisture expected into Texas and Louisiana Sunday into early next week. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible in parts of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
I’ll have more on this event this weekend, as it’s associated with a marginal risk of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow or Saturday. But regardless, heavy rainfall will be the biggest issue with this event.
-Meteorologist Nick Humphrey