Typhoon Maria, after blasting across the southern Japanese Ryukyu Islands, is now moving just north of Taiwan, delivering very heavy rain to much of the island, including Taipei City. It’s next and final destination is mainland China.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, maximum sustained winds at 1500 UTC Tuesday were estimated near 120 mph, with gusts to 150 mph (~195 kph/240 kph, respectively). The system is forecast to make landfall on the mainland Chinese coast by between 3-6 UTC Wednesday (10 pm-1 am CDT Tuesday/Wednesday in the US, 11 am-2 pm Wednesday Taipei, Taiwan time).
As sea surface temperatures lower gradually approaching the Chinese coast, Typhoon Maria will continue to weaken gradually. The sea surface temperatures in Maria’ s path are mostly running near normal. However, at 81 F/27 C, it is more than warm enough to support a tropical cyclone of moderate strength.
It is expected to make landfall as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon (forecast sustained winds 100 mph/~160 kph) . Because the system will remain relatively well organized, this will continue to be a “all-hazards” event; potentially torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 mph near the large eye, significant storm surge, particularly in bays and battering waves in excess of 33 ft/10 meters on top of the surge.
Potentially life-threatening risks from these hazards include injuries from falling or flying debris in the intense winds, very dangerous inland flooding from the heavy rains and storm surge flooding from the landfall of the typhoon, as well as the battering waves on top of the surge.
The North Atlantic tropics finally woke up after a weeks long period of dormancy…with the birth of Tropical Storm Beryl Thursday. The system formed in the west-central Atlantic after days in a formative stage as a tropical wave with no defined surface low.
Beryl is a very small system with tropical storm force winds only extending out 35 miles from the center of circulation Thursday night. However, it has continued to strengthen through Thursday Night and is expected to become a minimal hurricane later Friday.
Although the system is depicted to move near the Lesser Antilles late-Sunday, vertical wind shear…increasing wind speed with height…is expected to increase dramatically over Beryl as it approaches Sunday, leading to a rapid weakening and possible dissipation. This is highly likely given the small size of the circulation. However, regardless of what the status of the system is when it moves over the islands, accompanying what remains will be gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms and local downpours.
Meanwhile, in the Western Pacific, Maria has become a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The first Category 5-equivalent cyclone observed in either the North Pacific or North Atlantic in 2018. Maria moved over Guam and the southern Mariana Islands as a tropical storm, bringing strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. Damage was reported to Rota’s power system, but no damage to personal property or injuries were reported. The system then became a typhoon west of the island chain, before rapidly intensifying to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon around 1800 UTC (1 pm CDT Thursday in the US), then to its present intensity (as of this post) several hours later.
Maria is expected to move generally northwestward over open water during the next three days. It will remain a powerful typhoon thanks to absolutely steamy waters warmer than 90 F/32 C, 1 C or more above normal. Afterwards, it will move over slightly cooler waters, but may remain a powerful Category 3 or 4 hurricane (115 mph+ winds) as it approaches some of the southern most small Japanese islands on Tuesday.
The most significant threats from Maria will be increasing high surf and rip currents for areas ahead of Maria (Philippines, southern Japan, Taiwan) followed by heavy rainfall and damaging winds for the remote southern Japanese islands as it moves closer toward mainland China midweek.
Tropical Storm Bud formed in the Eastern Pacific basin offshore Southwest Mexico Saturday afternoon. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures in the mid-80s F (28-30 C) allowing for robust thunderstorms and modest vertical wind shear environment (winds are not increasingly rapidly with height). As a result, strengthening is expected over the coming 2-3 days and Bud is forecast by meteorological models to have a chance to become a hurricane early this week.
Unlike Aletta, which became a powerful, but harmless major hurricane out in the open ocean, Bud may be an unusual June threat to the Baja California Peninsula by the end of the week. Water temperatures are running a couple of degrees C above normal near the tip of the Peninsula and some models have suggested Bud may be a fairly strong system as it approaches. However, this is still very early and much depends on the track forecast. Flooding rainfall is certainly a more serious threat and I would give additional mention to an increasing likelihood of early initiation to the US Southwest monsoon caused by the tropical cyclone remnants surging moisture northward from the Gulf of California beginning next weekend. We’ll know more on the hazards to both Baja and the Southwest US by mid-week.
Quick mention on a system in the Western Pacific. Tropical Storm Maliksi, which formed on June 8th, is forecast to move well offshore Japan through early this week. It may strengthen to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon Sunday (sustained winds as of this post, currently at 70 mph as analyzed by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center). In fact, it already appears to be nearing typhoon strength (74 mph+) based on its satellite presentation. Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms in outer bands and high surf/rip currents likely the most significant hazards associated with the system as it advances offshore and becomes a non-tropical system.