Flooding Rains Impacting Coastal Texas

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding continue to impact parts of Southeast Texas and the far northeast region of Mexico as tropical moisture sourced from the Caribbean shifts over the area.

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Lower atmospheric water vapor image showing deep tropical moisture streaming into Southeast Texas and northeast Mexico around a broad mid-level circulation (located over South Texas) Tuesday night. White to green is higher moisture content.
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Flash flood warnings in and north of Corpus Christi, TX Tuesday night as rainfall “trains” over the same areas for hours.
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Storm total rainfall (likely in the past 36 hrs) over the same region. Some areas have received up to an estimated 4-8 inches of rainfall.
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Storm Total Rainfall over the Houston Metro and surrounding areas. A core of heavy rainfall occurred today over far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The Lake Charles radar (not shown) which is closer to this core and provides are more accurate estimate shows isolated 5-6 inches of rainfall in the area.

Corpus Christi International Airport has seen over 4.5 inches of rain since Monday night. Endinburg, TX has also seen about 4.5 niches since Monday morning where the heavy rain began earlier. Victoria, TX has seen close to 2 inches since Monday morning. More locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding is possible through Wednesday as further tropical moisture spreads over the region.

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One model forecast for precipitable water over much of Southeast Texas and western Louisiana during the day Wednesday. This is total of amount of liquid in the water column if all the water was precipitated out of the atmosphere. High values with available lift in the atmosphere to form precipitation indicates a high heavy rainfall potential.
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One model forecast showing total rainfall through midnight CDT Thursday. It indicates areas of heavy rainfall along the south-central Texas Coast. Where the heaviest bands of rain set up ultimately is unknown because of very fine scale variability, although areas near Corpus Christi appear to be the most favored, risking further flash flooding. Some areas could receive an additional 3-5+ inches of rain Tues night-Thursday.

Please avoid flooded roads as fast moving currents in unexpectedly deep water can sweep a vehicle away easily and roads may be washed out and unseen under the water. Keep track of the latest weather in your area prior to and while traveling as well.

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

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Major ocean cyclone pummeling the British Isles with strong winds/rainfall; Remnants of Bud to bring rain to US Southwest

An unusually potent (for the time of year) North Atlantic frontal system impacted British Isles and Ireland this morning and afternoon (local time) with intense winds and locally heavy rainfall. Ireland and Scotland were particularly hard hit with gusts to 80-90 mph (isolated gusts to 100 mph) during the morning and early afternoon hours Thursday.

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Powerful Atlantic cyclone…known officially by the UK Met Office as “Storm Hector”, advancing over the British Islands and France at 7 am CDT/1 pm British Standard Time (BST) Thursday. Intense wind wind gusts were behind the cold front and just south of the northeast advancing surface low.
The BBC reported that the highest wind gust ever recorded in the month of June in Northern Ireland occurred this morning; a hurricane-force wind gust of 74 mph at Orlock HeadEdinburgh, Scotland reported a gusts near 60 mph, as did Leeming Royal Air Force Base in northern England. Great Dun Fell, a 2,782 ft mountain in northern England reported a gust at its peak of 95 mph. With trees fully bloomed with leaves in mid-June (especially thanks to the recent very abnormally warm weather in Britain), large trees act as sails to the wind and are more easily toppled, posing life-threatening hazards from falling trees or branches onto roads. And this was much the case today with trees falling in the strong winds and heavy rain spreading over the north.

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Visible satellite image of powerful cyclone moving through the United Kingdom and Ireland. Image at 9 am BST.
Some photos:

Branches down in Glasgow. Also HERE

Tree down in North Bangor, England.

News Story on ‘Hector’ by The Telegraph


The Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Bud has, as expected, continued its rapid weakening is now a dying tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It has lost much of its deep convection, but still has a prominent circulation with gusty winds and locally heavy rain bands with scattered thunderstorms.

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Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Bud approaching the southern Baja California Peninsula this afternoon.

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Thermal infrared image of Bud this afternoon. Infrared allow us to differentiate clouds of similar optical brightness (see previous visible image) and determine cloud top warmth and therefore height into the atmosphere. The “deep convection” or intense thunderstorm activity is associated with the coldest (brighter white) tops in this image. Much of the rest of the circulation is made up of low clouds with far less precipitation.
Bud is expected to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas late tonight as a very minimal tropical storm or depression (likely 35-40 mph winds) as it continues to track of waters with little heat to support heavy thunderstorm activity. It will then move over the southern Peninsula and into the Gulf of California for mainland Northwest Mexico Friday as a weakening depression.

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As the systems enters the Gulf, its moisture, plus additional low-level moisture will rapidly surge northward from the Gulf, leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms in parts of Arizona, New Mexico and farther northward. Flash flooding is possible from these storms.

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Slight Risk (2 out 4 scale) of flash flooding within 25 miles of a point over southeast AZ on Friday morning – Saturday morning and over much of NM and southwest CO Saturday morning – Sunday morning.

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Total rainfall expected today through Sunday morning according to one model. General agreement of 3-5 inches possible in northern Mexico into far southern Arizona, with some variability based on where the heaviest showers and thunderstorms are. Widespread 1-2+ inches with locally heavier amounts are possible during the day Saturday farther north. Although the rain will be beneficial for the extreme to exceptional drought, flash flooding is a risk.
I would also mention, given the very dry soils and very dry air ahead of the system, more isolated storms may produce intense downbursts of cooler strong winds which may induce dust storms, so be mindful of this if they develop.

I will also give special mention to the surge of tropical moisture expected into Texas and Louisiana Sunday into early next week. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible in parts of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana.

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Total precipitation accumulation forecast by one model (much beginning Sunday) associated with tropical moisture surge sourced from the Caribbean Sea. Forecast details will change, but this poses a significant flash flood risk.
I’ll have more on this event this weekend, as it’s associated with a marginal risk of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow or Saturday. But regardless, heavy rainfall will be the biggest issue with this event.

-Meteorologist Nick Humphrey

Major Hurricane Bud continues movement offshore Pacific Coast of Mexico; watching for tropical development near Central America

Hurricane Bud strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph overnight. The update released at 8 am PDT by the National Hurricane Center has now downgraded back to Category 3 with 125 mph winds. With ocean heat content (which accounts for warmth with depth) dropping off quickly farther to the north, Bud has likely begun a weakening trend which will likely take it below major hurricane status by tonight and weaken it to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow.

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Hurricane Bud seen this morning by the GOES-16 satellite.
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A close up view of Hurricane Bud this morning after sunrise in the Mountain and Pacific time zones.
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Rapid drop-off in oceanic heat content as the Hurricane Bud moves north, closer to the Baja California Peninsula. Although surface waters in this region are running ~2 C above 1961-1990 averages, the depth of warm water is not supportive for a strong hurricane this early in the year.

As Bud approaches the southern tip of Baja on Thursday, rainfall and high surf will increase over the area. I expect tropical storm watches to be put up over southern Baja California Peninsula by this evening. The biggest threat to southern Baja will be locally heavy rain from rain bands and high surf. The system will likely be a dying tropical storm by the time it arrives near Cabo San Lucas Thursday night.

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Heavy rainfall from Bud will spread over the southern Baja Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of California Thursday evening thru Friday evening.

Again, still expecting a moisture surge up the Gulf to generate increasing monsoon showers and thunderstorms into northern Mexico and Southwest US this weekend. Watch out in these areas for potential flash flooding concerns.

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One model depiction of precipitation through sunrise Sunday. Depending on track, precipitation axis may be a bit farther west than this model predicts. Locally heavier showers and storms likely in southern Arizona and southwest New Mexico as well as mountainous terrain farther north in the Four Corners. Rainfall expected to increase Friday afternoon from Mexico.

Checking in on the Atlantic…there’s a very slight chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean during the next 5 days (20% according to the National Hurricane Center). However, regardless of development, it appears a pattern is setting up for a significant surge of deep moisture from the Caribbean into Texas early next week, potentially bringing significant rainfall and possibly flooding. Texas is currently facing growing drought conditions.

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One model forecast for total rainfall through Monday evening. Much of the rain which falls in Southeast TX and Southwest LA will fall beginning Saturday. There’s a slight possibility it could be in association with a tropical system, so details may change among models, but more likely an “atmospheric river”, a connection of deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean moving into the region. Certainly flooding is a possibility, even with the drought or abnormally dry conditions spreading into Southeast and south-central Texas.
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High precipitable water plume expected to move from the tropics into Texas and Louisiana as forecast this weekend.

I’ll keep an eye on things, but regardless, I would be mindful of heavy rainfall in the forecast later this weekend and early next week if you live in Southeast Texas into Louisiana and perhaps farther north. I’ll keep an eye on things!

–Meteorologist Nick Humphrey.