The North Pacific and North Atlantic appear to be fairly quiet as far as significant ocean storms. However, I wanted to make note of a likely developing tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific Basin (east of 140 W longitude). The US National Hurricane Center has pegged it with a 80% chance of development over the next 2 days before it moves northward toward much colder waters after Monday. It should be no threat to land at this time.
A couple of other tropical waves are ongoing east of the one mentioned above; one south of mainland Mexico, another offshore Central America. Numerical models indicate the two waves may merge and possibly form a tropical cyclone the second half of next week (after Tuesday). There’s also appears to be a favorable signal for elevated tropical cyclone development in the Eastern Pacific starting mid-week going into early the following week. Details become sketchy that far out of course, beyond the general pattern set up. The active pattern signals forecasters look for are 1) active monsoon trough…the convergence zone for abundant thunderstorm activity from Central America out over the very warm waters of the Eastern Pacific, 2) active Central American Gyre which provides thunderstorm complexes with mild spin as they move from land over open water, and 3) a low wind shear environment over the open ocean for systems to form without disruption. And with more cyclones means greater risk for landfall impacts as were seen with Bud and Carlotta. Waters over the basin continue to be abnormally warm (1-1.5 C/2-3 F above normal generally) relative to mid to late-20th century norms.
So something to watch later next week for more significant impacts to either Mexico or the Southwest US for remnant moisture yet again.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding continue to impact parts of Southeast Texas and the far northeast region of Mexico as tropical moisture sourced from the Caribbean shifts over the area.
Corpus Christi International Airport has seen over 4.5 inches of rain since Monday night. Endinburg, TX has also seen about 4.5 niches since Monday morning where the heavy rain began earlier. Victoria, TX has seen close to 2 inches since Monday morning. More locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding is possible through Wednesday as further tropical moisture spreads over the region.
Please avoid flooded roads as fast moving currents in unexpectedly deep water can sweep a vehicle away easily and roads may be washed out and unseen under the water. Keep track of the latest weather in your area prior to and while traveling as well.
An unusually potent (for the time of year) North Atlantic frontal system impacted British Isles and Ireland this morning and afternoon (local time) with intense winds and locally heavy rainfall. Ireland and Scotland were particularly hard hit with gusts to 80-90 mph (isolated gusts to 100 mph) during the morning and early afternoon hours Thursday.
The BBC reported that the highest wind gust ever recorded in the month of June in Northern Ireland occurred this morning; a hurricane-force wind gust of 74 mph at Orlock Head. Edinburgh, Scotland reported a gusts near 60 mph, as did Leeming Royal Air Force Base in northern England. Great Dun Fell, a 2,782 ft mountain in northern England reported a gust at its peak of 95 mph. With trees fully bloomed with leaves in mid-June (especially thanks to the recent very abnormally warm weather in Britain), large trees act as sails to the wind and are more easily toppled, posing life-threatening hazards from falling trees or branches onto roads. And this was much the case today with trees falling in the strong winds and heavy rain spreading over the north.
The Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Bud has, as expected, continued its rapid weakening is now a dying tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It has lost much of its deep convection, but still has a prominent circulation with gusty winds and locally heavy rain bands with scattered thunderstorms.
Bud is expected to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas late tonight as a very minimal tropical storm or depression (likely 35-40 mph winds) as it continues to track of waters with little heat to support heavy thunderstorm activity. It will then move over the southern Peninsula and into the Gulf of California for mainland Northwest Mexico Friday as a weakening depression.
As the systems enters the Gulf, its moisture, plus additional low-level moisture will rapidly surge northward from the Gulf, leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms in parts of Arizona, New Mexico and farther northward. Flash flooding is possible from these storms.
I would also mention, given the very dry soils and very dry air ahead of the system, more isolated storms may produce intense downbursts of cooler strong winds which may induce dust storms, so be mindful of this if they develop.
I will also give special mention to the surge of tropical moisture expected into Texas and Louisiana Sunday into early next week. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible in parts of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
I’ll have more on this event this weekend, as it’s associated with a marginal risk of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche tomorrow or Saturday. But regardless, heavy rainfall will be the biggest issue with this event.
Hurricane Bud strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph overnight. The update released at 8 am PDT by the National Hurricane Center has now downgraded back to Category 3 with 125 mph winds. With ocean heat content (which accounts for warmth with depth) dropping off quickly farther to the north, Bud has likely begun a weakening trend which will likely take it below major hurricane status by tonight and weaken it to a minimal hurricane by tomorrow.
As Bud approaches the southern tip of Baja on Thursday, rainfall and high surf will increase over the area. I expect tropical storm watches to be put up over southern Baja California Peninsula by this evening. The biggest threat to southern Baja will be locally heavy rain from rain bands and high surf. The system will likely be a dying tropical storm by the time it arrives near Cabo San Lucas Thursday night.
Again, still expecting a moisture surge up the Gulf to generate increasing monsoon showers and thunderstorms into northern Mexico and Southwest US this weekend. Watch out in these areas for potential flash flooding concerns.
Checking in on the Atlantic…there’s a very slight chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean during the next 5 days (20% according to the National Hurricane Center). However, regardless of development, it appears a pattern is setting up for a significant surge of deep moisture from the Caribbean into Texas early next week, potentially bringing significant rainfall and possibly flooding. Texas is currently facing growing drought conditions.
I’ll keep an eye on things, but regardless, I would be mindful of heavy rainfall in the forecast later this weekend and early next week if you live in Southeast Texas into Louisiana and perhaps farther north. I’ll keep an eye on things!